Gerardo Del Real,
Editor
Jan. 1, 2025
Welcome to 2025… it’s going to be a very volatile ride!
Yet, with tax-loss selling now in the proverbial rearview, I’m anticipating a solid rebound to kick things off as we head toward the first full trading week of the new year.
I don’t, however, think it’ll be an across-the-board rebound as fears of a global slowdown are now starting to show up in the market as we head fearlessly into a second Trump administration.
I’ll be curious to see if it's just an illiquid market that's looking to reposition here before Inauguration Day or if that’s going to be part of a broader theme for 2025.
It certainly doesn't help that President-elect Donald Trump and his administration are warning of a 1929-style depression that could potentially arise out of the debt spiral that, let's be clear, both sides of the aisle have created for many, many decades.
It also doesn’t help that the incoming Trump administration, despite campaign promises (imagine that!), is now saying that once prices rise and inflation ticks up, it's kind of hard to bring it back down.
We’ll see if that’s just talk or part of a more persistent non-transitory theme for 2025.
Turning to the metals, we currently have gold clinging on to the US$2,600 per ounce support level. Likewise, silver is attempting to hold the US$29/oz level. Those key support levels may prove difficult to hold over the near-term with a dollar index that doesn’t look like it wants to budge from its perch above 108.
With fears of a global slowdown, we also have copper dipping below US$4 per pound.
I expect Chinese stimulus to continue to be rampant in 2025. And hence, I am anticipating a rebound in copper demand as it relates to China, which, of course, is the most consequential economy as it relates to commodity demand.
Turning to digital assets, the pullback in Bitcoin has been real… now around US$95K per coin after surging above US$106K just a couple of short weeks ago.
I’ll be curious to see what our in-house crypto expert Mr. Chris Curl has to say about that in the coming weeks. I do know that Chris is not hyper-BTC focused and that he has his eye on a number of smaller, lesser-known crypto opportunities that he believes have quadruple-digit potential regardless of Bitcoin’s wild price gyrations.
I hope everyone is having a joyful New Year's Day with copious amounts of food and football!
It's going to be a highly profitable 2025, folks, but it's also going to be one filled with volatility… even more so than what we saw last year. We’re loaded for bear for the task at hand.
Let’s get it!
Gerardo Del Real
Editor, Daily Profit Cycle