Mike Fagan,
Editor
Nov. 8, 2024
Well, we’ve all had a few days now to digest the election results — no matter what side of the fence you may reside.
It took gold even less time!
From the golden escalator ride nine years ago, to gold’s impressive 2024 run, to the metal’s dramatic pullback on Wednesday — the rollercoaster ride for the yellow metal has only just begun as we head toward a new… well, sort of new… administration.
And it’s not that the same forces that were driving gold’s recent ascension are now in a state of reversal. It’s just that everything has now been flipped upside down with Trump’s clear-cut victory outweighing, at least temporarily, the geopolitical risk factor.
Looking at 2024 as a whole, much of gold’s upward impetus in the first half was driven by strong central bank buying out of China and Russia with those purchases cooling slightly in the second half.
Then, in the past few months leading up to the election, gold prices rocketed to all-time highs near US$2,800 an ounce on the prospect of a lower-interest-rate environment coupled with rising geopolitical tensions across Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, North Korea, and China.
Those prospects for lower rates finally came to fruition in September with the Fed’s 50-basis-point cut — the first such easing in some four years — promptly sending gold to those aforementioned highs.
Then, just yesterday, the Fed lowered interest rates once again — this time a 25-basis-point cut — citing an “uncertain” economic outlook.
Along with that post-election uncertainty, what we’re getting now is a predictable bout of whipsaw action in the gold price as the market contemplates what the incoming administration is going to look like in terms of overall direction and fiscal policy.
Immediately out of the gate, we’re seeing a significantly stronger greenback with the dollar index hovering right around 105 — its highest level since July. Of course, a rising US dollar is negative for gold as a non-yielding asset.
In tandem with a stronger greenback, Trump’s resounding victory is driving a sharp reaction in the bond market with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to about 4.3% - 4.5% — again, the highest level since July.
We mentioned the resultive whipsaw action in the yellow metal… and you can see that in the 5-day gold-price chart below.
Looking ahead to President-elect Trump’s second term, gold is potentially facing another bout of downward pressure with expectations of a new, larger round of tariffs (potentially 10% to 20% on all imports with significantly higher levies on imports from China) coupled with an anticipated opening salvo of large-scale fiscal stimulus.
Such a scenario would likely drive the greenback higher still, which, as noted, could spell even more bearish pressure on the world’s number-one safe haven asset.
Yet, it’s not all doom and gloom for gold and gold investors. In fact, far from it!
Remember, the longtime debasement of all fiat currencies — with the greenback being the most consequential of them all — is the overarching reason why gold has more than quadrupled in value since 2005.
Irregardless of party or administration, that erosion is only going to accelerate going forward. Point in fact: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget already estimates that Trump’s fiscal policies will add an extra US$7.75T in government debt over the next decade.
Even if that projection is only, say, half right, it still points to a Fed that’ll need to lower rates to keep its fiscal house of cards intact as the markets force rates and gold higher in recognition of the inflationary consequences.
So what’s immediately ahead?
I’m expecting more whipsaw action in the gold price over the short-term (meaning the next couple of quarters) followed by a slow but somewhat steady climb to brand-new, all-time highs above US$3,000/oz starting in the second half of 2025.
And that brings us to a particularly intriguing gold development story that happens to bring with it another highly-critical metal. It’s happening right here on American soil and it involves a very rare, super-high-demand metal called antimony.
For those that don’t know, antimony is essential to a variety of military applications including missile and munitions production, nuclear weapons production, night vision technology, and infrared sensors. The metal also has advanced applications in key battery technologies as well as in high-value electrical and energy-related technologies.
Our own Gerardo Del Real of Junior Resource Monthly has visited this somewhat unknown, yet highly-critical gold-antimony property multiple, multiple times… and he brings you the full story here.
Click here to watch the video
The project boasts the largest-known antimony resource on American soil and is poised to be the only domestically-mined source of the critical element. Current estimates put the high-grade deposit at 148.6 million pounds of antimony plus 4.8 million ounces of gold… making it a Top-10 US gold deposit to boot.
The project is of such vital importance to the US government that, in Q4 2022, the US Department of Defense (DoD) awarded the company US$24.8 million under Defense Production Act Title III to complete the environmental and engineering studies necessary for final permitting.
Then, in February of this year, the DoD conditionally awarded the company an additional US$34.6 million to expand the work for advancing permitting and construction readiness, thereby bringing total Title III funding for the project to $59.4 million.
Most recently, the US Forest Service announced the completion of its final Environmental Impact Statement wherein it will be issuing a Draft Record of Decision on the project most likely by year-end.
On top of all that, the project is considered a superfund brownfield site with a primary ESG mandate of reopening a key salmon migration route that has been closed off for far too long.
In other words… the exceptionally well-run company behind the project is committed to not only extracting the critical minerals needed to shore up our national security but, as well, to responsibly restore an old abandoned mine site to the betterment of the environment and ecosystem.
You can learn all about the company, the project, the ESG mandate, and the timely gold-antimony opportunity at-hand by clicking here for Gerardo’s full video presentation.
Yours in profits,
Mike Fagan
Editor, Daily Profit Cycle