Chris Curl,
Editor
Oct. 16, 2025
Gold is shining this year.
In 2025, the precious metal has absolutely taken off, blasting through one record high after another.
As of October 16, spot gold is sitting above $4,240 per ounce, which means it’s up an eye-popping 59.3% year-to-date. That’s its strongest run since 1979. Naturally, investors everywhere are asking the same thing: How much higher can this go?
Even Wall Street can’t ignore it. Big-name banks have been racing to update their forecasts — some even calling for $10,000 gold by the end of the decade. So, what’s really driving this surge, and is it sustainable?
The Perfect Storm Behind Gold’s Meteoric Rise
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has been a mirror image of this rally — jumping from about $245 at the start of the year to $390 by mid-October.
The rally really hit overdrive in late August, when gold shot from $3,500 to over $4,000 in just 36 days. That’s what traders call parabolic price action — seven straight weeks of record closes. It’s rare. And when it happens, it’s usually because something big is shifting underneath the surface.
One major force? Central banks. They’ve been hoarding gold like Scrooge McDuck, adding over 1,000 tonnes a year for three years straight. China leads the pack with reported holdings of 2,264 tonnes — though many analysts think that number’s low.
This kind of demand — roughly 15% of global supply — gives gold an incredibly strong floor.
What are the experts predicting next?
- Goldman Sachs: They’re among the most bullish, eyeing $4,900 by late 2026, and even $5,000 in a “crisis scenario.”
- Bank of America: Right there with them — a base case around $4,400, but possibly up to $5,000 if current trends hold.
- JPMorgan: Are now calling for $6,000 by 2029.
- Deutsche Bank: Targets $4,525.
- HSBC: Recently lifted its forecast from $3,125 to $3,950 average price for 2026.
Even the so-called conservative outlooks imply more upside from here — a sign that institutional confidence is strong.
The $10,000 Question: Can Gold Really Go That High?
Here’s where it gets interesting. Some respected analysts, like Ed Yardeni, believe gold could hit $10,000 by the end of the decade. His reasoning? Simple: the world is losing faith in fiat currencies.
The U.S. national debt hit $36 trillion this year, up from $33 trillion just two years ago. As governments continue printing and spending, investors are looking for assets that can’t be debased. That’s gold’s superpower.
More moderate projections, like from InvestingHaven, still paint a bullish picture — around $4,200 in 2026 and possibly $5,155 by 2030 — as long as gold stays above that all-important $3,000 support level.
Why Gold’s Shining So Bright
Let’s break down the key drivers fueling this rally:
1. The Fed and the Falling Dollar
With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates again soon, real yields (interest rates minus inflation) are falling. That’s music to gold’s ears because it thrives when the opportunity cost of holding it goes down. Add a 12% drop in the dollar this year, and you’ve got a recipe for soaring prices.
2. Global Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand
Trade wars, tariffs, and political uncertainty — all of it sends investors running for safety. With the U.S. imposing 100% tariffs on some Chinese goods and Beijing tightening control of rare earth exports, gold’s “safe haven” status is shining brighter than ever.
3. Central Bank Buying Spree
After Western sanctions froze Russia’s reserves in 2022, central banks started diversifying away from the dollar. Countries like China, Russia, and Turkey have been stacking gold to protect themselves from future sanctions or currency risk. That’s not a short-term fad — it’s a structural shift that could last years.
What do the charts say?
Gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 85, which screams “overbought.” Its MACD reading is at an all-time high too. Essentially, we’re in overdrive territory, but one that shows no signs of stopping any time soon.
But even if gold dips, key support lies around $4,000, with deeper backing between $3,800–$3,900. And on the flip side, a clean break above $4,300 could open the door to $4,400–$4,500.
In short: it ain’t over yet. And the biggest gains to come for investors are going to be from miners who are long overdue for a breakout.
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Keep coming back,
Chris Curl
Editor, Daily Profit Cycle