Nick Hodge,
Publisher
March 24, 2026
We’ve now been punched in the face.
A “war” that was supposed to take a weekend is now approaching the month mark. They’re also going to need 200 billion of your tax dollars to keep fighting it.
The government is still partially shut down.
Oil just went up ~70% in less than a month, and your wallet isn’t the only thing it’s draining.
The energy price shock has led to a spike in inflation and volatility that has left retirement accounts reeling as the stock market is down more than 4% for the year.
Monthly inflation had ticked all the way down to ~2.4% in January and February. Look for March to be closer to 3%.
Growth is slowing as well — on multiple fronts.
Employment growth in terms of nonfarm payrolls is essentially non-existent. That’s putting pressure on the consumer, which will lead to a downtick in expenditures. And that will show up as slowing gross domestic product.
Earnings growth is set to slow as well.
According to FactSet, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q1 2026 is 12.5%. That is below the 12.7% estimate at the start of the quarter. Nine of eleven S&P sectors are expected to report lower earnings today (compared to December 31) due to downward revisions to EPS estimates.
So stagflation is here.
In this environment, the Fed should be thinking about raising rates.
But that of course is politically unfeasible. And while rate cut probabilities have been pushed out until October 2027, there are no chances of a hike on the board.
With no rate increases in the cards, bond yields will find themselves capped.
And I expect gold to be the continued beneficiary. It remains up ~1.5% for the year so far versus the S&P 500, which is down just over 4%.
As part of our Q1 Call-in tomorrow, I will walk members of Foundational Profits through exactly what I own right now. I’ll go through each position in our long-term portfolio.
What I’ve done with that publication is constructed a portfolio that can withstand a market blast like we’ve seen over the past month.
As of mid-March, with portfolio weightings applied, we were up 8.8% year-to-date versus an S&P that was negative.
We’ve done that with a 20-position portfolio that has gold, gold stocks, and cash as the three largest positions.
Tomorrow, as part of the member call-in, I’ll take members through the rest of the open positions and discuss what I’m adding to, pairing, or getting rid of.
I’ll also give my outlook on major economic indicators and asset classes for the next quarter.
In addition to seeing what I own in every monthly issue, the live quarterly call-in is the biggest perk of being a Foundational Profits member. And you get four of them every year for the entry price of $249.
Click here if you aren’t already a member.
I hope to see you at the call tomorrow!
Call it like you see it,
Nick Hodge
Publisher, Daily Profit Cycle