Nick Hodge,
Publisher
Sept. 15, 2025
Editor’s Note: Please enjoy the intro to the September issue of Foundational Profits, below. —Nick
Capital came back from summer vacation and realized a gold bull was on.
After consolidating between $3,200 and $3,400 for the past few months, gold has now broken out to new all-time highs above $3,600.
Institutions and individuals are noticing.
Central banks now own more gold than they have in a quarter century.
Gold has recently surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset after the U.S. dollar and, for the first time since 1996, gold represents a bigger share of central banks' reserves than Treasuries.
Investors have come a’ callin’ as well. Year-to-date fund flows for the SPDR Gold Trust at this time last year were -$447 million. So far this year flows are $10.89 billion. What a difference a year makes.
Gold’s price performance has dwarfed that of the broader stock market this year, up some 38% and 12%, respectively. And gold stocks are now outperforming as well, up more than 97% for the year so far as a group.
On the technical side, the trend is clearly bullish, pressing into all-time highs around $3,635 after breaking out of summer consolidation. The rally has accelerated sharply in the last several weeks, showing strong buyer conviction. Immediate term support is at $3,430. While overbought on relative strength, this does not imply the trend is reversing, just that the pace may cool temporarily in the near-term.
Whether we first retest $3,500 or continue higher from here, near-term psychological price targets are in the $3,750 to $3,800 range, with $4,000 the next major hurdle if momentum persists. The longer-term Fibonacci extension based on the prior base breakout is in the $4,200 to $4,250 zone.
The chart shows a textbook bullish breakout with all moving averages confirming trend strength. As long as price holds above $3,400, the bull market is intact with room to push toward $4,000+.
Goldman agrees, now forecasting gold priced at $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. And if 1% of the private money in the US Treasuries moves into gold, it says prices could approach $5,000 per ounce.
Let us bow our heads and recite the bullish biases.
Rate cuts are coming despite inflation back on the rise. The latest CPI print showed +0.4% in August, up from +0.2% in July, with year-over-year inflation re-accelerating to 2.9%.
Shelter, food, and energy were the biggest drivers — sticky components that don’t suggest easing anytime soon.
And yet, the Fed is barreling toward a September rate cut. Fed funds futures now assign an 89% probability of a 25 bp cut at the Sept. 17 meeting. Cutting into sticky inflation defies logic — it’s fuel on the fire.
The promise of coming rate cuts has also kept a lid on the dollar, with DXY firmly below 100. And the 10-year yield has collapsed, which is rocket fuel for risk assets.
Add in ongoing tariff uncertainty and a presidential administration hellbent on replacing the Fed chair and governors while undermining any remaining independence, and you have plenty of factors to keep the gold bull going.
For our purposes, this move has been bigly beneficial. As of last month, we had just over 40% of our portfolio in gold and precious metal equities. We’re up a cumulative 270% across four positions:
- SPDR Gold Trust, up 89.1%
- Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver, up 62.9% (recommended this year)
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners, up 95.7%
- Royal Gold, up 22.2%
Royal Gold, a royalty company, was recommended in July. And the gold royalty theme has continued to gain traction since then.
Tether Investments controls the eponymous Tether (USDT) stablecoin. It is the largest stablecoin in the world with a market cap of $155 billion. Earlier this year, Tether announced it held $120 billion worth of Treasury bills. That makes it a top 20 global holder of US Treasuries, ahead of countries like Germany.
In June, Tether took a 33.7% stake in Elemental Altus Royalties Corp. for US$89.2 million, and can go to a 47.7% stake by exercising options worth another US$39 million.
Earlier this month, Elemental announced it would be acquiring EMX Royalty Corp., and Tether would be putting another $100 million into the deal.
Word on the street is that Tether is buying two tonnes of gold per week for its gold-backed stablecoin, Tether Gold. That makes it a bigger buyer than many central banks.
Not only will this additional buying help drive further real price discovery for gold, but I believe these moves will kick off a consolidation phase in gold royalty companies.
One company I started recommending earlier this year…
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Call it like you see it,
Nick Hodge
Publisher, Daily Profit Cycle