Ryan Stancil,
Editor
May 1, 2026
If you ask anyone who has lived in the Mid-Atlantic region long enough, you’ll learn about how the weather has a habit of luring the people into a false sense of security.
It happens most commonly in the later winter months, where the area might experience a few days of pleasant, spring-like weather before winter comes back into play and reminds everyone that it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
The market is kind of like that now, especially since Donald Trump began his war of choice in Iran.
From an investor’s perspective, things were terrible when the bombs began to drop. Stocks shed value, commodity holdings suffered, and even the time-tested safe haven of gold lost a lot of its shine.
The US and Iran went back and forth, the conflict escalated, and it seemed like nothing could be done. Then it seemed like talks might actually go somewhere. At the very least, there was some deescalation. The markets responded in kind. Of course, that didn’t last. Trump blustered, Iran didn’t back down, the markets reversed from the high, leaving investors with whiplash and analysts throwing up their hands in frustration.
As of now, as we head into May 2026, the situation in Iran is such that investors have had that sense of security taken away once more. Iran isn’t the only reason, but it’s a big part of why economic pain is back on the board and likely will be for the foreseeable future.
Starting with Iran, there’s the matter of Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He wants to try and strangle Iran’s economic capabilities and, at least for now, seems willing to keep this up until Iran agrees to concessions that he lays out.
Additionally, the blockade could only be the first step. More military action is always a possibility, especially given the increased deployment of troops to the area. If very recent history repeats, we’ll see a start-stop cycle regarding peace talks over the coming months, and the market will largely continue to be mired in the resulting confusion.
To complicate things further, here in the US, we’re about to see a changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair is set to end in the coming weeks, and Kevin Warsh is due to take over the role. The Senate banking committee on Wednesday voted along party lines to confirm his nomination. When Warsh’s name was floated for the job, there were concerns about whether the Fed would continue to be independent or if it would be more accommodating to Trump’s whims regarding interest rates. That’s something only time will tell.
What can be confirmed, however, is that interest rates will remain steady for now. Chairman Powell, in his last address in the role, said as much. Rising energy prices and the inflationary pressure that come with that were cited as key reasons for the decision and it’s all but given that there will be no cuts until at least some time next year.
The market, as of late, has largely been reacting to headlines. We saw that in recent index price rises following anything that resembled good news out of Iran. We also saw it in the recent announcement of the blockade that led to oil moving back above $100 per barrel.
So the market gives and it takes away.
There’s likely going to be more of this, and as an investor, it’s more important than ever to invest defensively.
Nick has been guiding his readers on how to do just that in the pages of Foundational Profits. The portfolio there has consistently outpaced the market in good times and bad and will continue to do so.
Click here to see how you can join them and thrive no matter what the market holds in the near future.
Keep your eyes open,
Ryan Stancil
Editor, Daily Profit Cycle