Gerardo Del Real,
Editor
March 25, 2026
Bond volatility is signaling that the war with Iran will continue. Currency volatility agrees, and the recent volatility in the metals market is an indicator of instability across liquid assets.
The short-term volatility will continue. The mid-long-term trend is clear as day in the metals space. They’re headed higher. Here’s a chart showing who bought the most gold in 2025.
We all expect to see China in there, but seeing the likes of Indonesia stepping back into the gold market further underscores the rush for central banks to use gold as the wealth preserver it has always been. That’s not changing anytime soon.
Adding fuel to the fire is inflation, which was already running hot before the war. The Labor Department reported import prices rose 1.3% in February — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — while export prices climbed 1.5%, both far exceeding expectations of 0.6% (by over 100%). Again, these numbers don’t factor in the rise in oil and gasoline prices.
Expect a 3%+ CPI print for March. None of this is good for the average person. But it is precisely the environment in which gold outperforms the broader indices.
Which puts us in a bind. Raise rates and the ballooning interest payments (even prior to the war) get even less sustainable. Cut rates into this rising inflation and you risk more stress on an already slowing economy.
Taking a step back to see the forest for the trees, you can bet that the vulnerability to higher energy prices due to regional instability will accelerate efforts to secure more critical metals from domestic sources. That includes lithium, uranium, copper, and silver.
How am I playing the short-term volatility? Two ways.
- Looking for new positions that are on sale or opportunities to add.
- Not panic selling a historic commodities bull market because of the short-term pullback.
That’s it. The hardest thing to do during a correction is watch it. Know what you own, know why you own it, know if the trend is in your favor, and let the market catch up.
Expect volatility. Expect $100-$200 daily moves in the gold space and $3-$5 moves in the silver space. That’s the new norm.
Pullbacks from record highs are completely normal and healthy. All the recent ones have been short-lived. Do with that what you will.
Let’s get it!
Gerardo Del Real
Editor, Daily Profit Cycle