Bears Won’t Hibernate This Winter - October Foundational Profit Issue

Here’s where we are. Where we’re headed.
And what you can do about it as we head into 2023.

Foundational Profits October Issue

Nick Hodge here with Foundational Profits, and I wanted to run through what you can expect in the October issue for that premium publication. 

I go into what's worked so far this year, which hasn't been much as we see the S&P down some 24% and the Nasdaq down more than a third for the year as we head into the fourth quarter. 

But what has worked, at least as it relates to hedge funds, has been macro-themed hedge funds as opposed to stock pickers. Asset allocation strategies across different assets like the dollar, bonds and gold have performed better than picking individual stocks, most of which have frankly had their assets handed to them over the course of the year. 

I outline our macro strategy for how we're going to go into the end of this year and what we can expect next in this issue.

Nick Hodge outlines his micro strategy for the current market.

I talk about where we are and where we're going. That means diving into current earnings for the S&P. We've got Q3 earnings that are coming out. I talk about what sectors of the market — and not just stocks — are performing, including the US dollar. 

And I talk about how long it's going to take for us to get out of this current bear market that we are in. Hint hint, I don't think the fat bears are going to hibernate this year. 

We still have a lot of downside ahead. There is still historic overvaluation as it relates to the major indexes. If you look at the P/E ratio of the S&P or the price-to-sales ratio of the S&P, they’re still not even back down to their historical averages. 

You've got a wealth effect that is disappearing. People have spent their stimulus money, people have spent their Paycheck Protection Plan money. And that's translating into lower earnings for stocks, which the major indices continue to discount.

You've got a CPI number that will be out for September by the time you see this. And you've got the Q3 GDP number coming out later in October that's going to be closer to 1% than 3%. And that means we're in an economic contraction cycle that's going to last for a couple of more quarters. 

But there is some good news, at least relatively. I give a commodity update. I take a look at a long-term chart of the CRB Commodity Index. Its bullish cycle from the early nineties to around the 2008 timeframe, and then how it has come down from 2008 to 2020. And why it is now in a renewed long-term up trend that will last at least a decade, but not without fits and starts. Premium members will learn more about those fits and starts and what they mean for their portfolio and what they can do about it.

Speaking of portfolios, I go through our model portfolio. I give callouts as it relates to what's cheap, what I've added more of over the past month as we head into the end of the year. And I outline my allocations overall for my retirement portfolios as far as what percentage allocations I have to different asset classes and portfolio recommendations. 

And the issue closes out with a letter to the editor about gold. How I own it, in what form, in what percentages, and what sort of recommendations I have as far as coins and gold stocks.

It's all in the October issue of Foundational Profits. 

If you're not already a premium subscriber, it's well worth the small investment to get the monthly issues and the special reports that allow you to peek over my shoulder as I manage my personal retirement wealth for myself and my family, as you should be doing for yours. 

So click here and fill out this form to become a member today.

You’ll get access for a one-time investment of $99. That'll get you 12 monthly issues where I cover the market from soup to nuts every month, including what I'm doing with my personal capital to navigate these troubled times, to insulate myself and my family from them, to prosper in spite of them — as well as how to get into position for what I see coming after the turbulence we're seeing now. 

If you'd like to see the strategies that we're using to do all that, which are beating the market this year despite the S&P continuing to be in negative territory, click here and fill out this form now to become a member of Foundational Profits — and join the thousands of people who now see a better way.

Nick Hodge

Nick Hodge
Publisher, Daily Profit Cycle